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It's been annouced that the Meaningful vote will take place on March 12th

Probably will be the heaviest defeat she'll ever have and any defeat will leave us gridlocked further with no real way forward other than crashing out on March 29th and i would say her government will collapse one month later once DUP end their support

There won't be enough MP's who would vote for a no-deal.
It's the Brexiteers who must decide, do they want Mrs May's deal or delay Brexit. And if Brexit gets delayed a 2nd referendum looks likely.

There is talk that should May's Withdrawal Deal fall short of around 50 votes or fewer then she'll put it up again for a 3rd vote within days of the 12th March as a means of saying particularly to the ERG core of the Tories still sitting on the fence it's either vote for this deal in the last chance saloon or end up with a much softer form of Brexit or potentially not one at all.The EU have given the Government until close of day tomorrow (Friday) to come up with 'reasonable alternative plans' for the Backstop as the EU have rejected a unilateral mechanism,a limited time frame & Geoffrey Cox's idea of an impartial arbitration panel (made of judges,lawyers etc) which sounds to me Cox has pretty much wasted his time negotiating.

There are the more hard-line,die in the ditch ERG members like Mark Francois who are still 'No Deal Brexit' enthusiasts & believe that will be the most likely outcome but I just don't sense Parliament will allow it other than by accident ie the clock runs down with no extension agreed.According to reports around 30-40 Labour MP's may vote to back May's deal.And the truth is MP's like Francois has to come to the realization that voting against TM's Deal (which means the UK is aligned but outside the Customs Union) will probably lead to a softer Brexit being passed in the House where we will be inside the CU (like Corbyn's deal) which I strongly suspect the EU wants all along as we will never be seen as a financial competitor ie trade deals,financial services etc.

And should May's deal somehow pass with a large rump of ERG backing it then I somehow suspect considering the complete balls up May & Olly Robbins have made of the Withdrawal Deal then May will probably have to stand down as PM as a consequence for another leader to carry out the future trade deal etc

(06-03-2019 18:50 )Jack the Nipper Wrote: [ -> ]^Labour MP's like Emma Reynolds,Mary Creagh & former PM Gordon Brown have been floating the idea of these 'Citizen's Assemblies/ Panels' for about the past 6 months or so as a means of finding a pathway through Brexit that gets consensus from the wider public (& probably absolve MP's of any responsibility).I even read an article written by Gordon Brown mentioning pausing Brexit for 2 years to form one of these panels debating & finding consensus on various subjects ie trade,laws, immigration etc.In truth I have numerous problems with these hypothetical Panels such as who is the arbitrator that gets to choose each member,what is the criteria for qualifying to be a panel member (ie will it be based on education level,work experience,life experiences, ethnicity or religion or based more on political leanings,whether you're a trade union member or if you voted Leave or Remain etc).Also will every panelist be given adequate data & information that is available to MP's to find clarification, relevant knowledge etc on such topics. How many panelists will be chosen & would be deemed a fair reflection to represent the country ie 20,50,100,1000 etc considering over 30 million people voted back in the EU Ref back in 2016.No pollster tends publish findings on subjects with less than a 1000 people interviewed & so would a 1000 panelist members be the minimum requirement,who knows.And what if this Citizens Assembly finds a general consensus that backs effectively a Hard Brexit (or a clean break from the EU) or vice versa then it is revealed that 60-70% of the panel were Brexit voters or vice versa & the panel are a mainly Remain voters who want to stay in the EU then it would be discredited by the media & by voters.And most importantly at whatever consensus these panels come to on topics do they become part of legislation towards a Brexit decision or can MP's choose to ignore it & if so it renders these panels effectively meaningless.


The common denominator between every MP,media commentator etc like Emma Reynolds,Mary Creagh,Gordon Brown, Sonia Sodha (like southsidestu has mentioned) that is that they have been on record as backing a 2nd Ref or as some people call it a 'Peoples Vote' & so I question what the true motives behind supporting these Panels are other than I suspect to delay & then block Brexit by another means.These Citizens Panels/Assemblies may sound good in theory but in practice I think they would be a logistical nightmare,provide another layer of bureaucracy & absolves MP's of any responsibility.

Ok, so the first paragraph raises concerns about the ability to organise and execute a CA. Given that Official CA's have run successfully in Ireland, The Netherlands, Ontaria. British Columbia & Poland as well as unofficial ones in Belgium and here in The UK I would say that the first paragraph is debunked.

In regards to the second paragraph and Brexit, the unofficial CA that was held in the UK by University College London was on Brexit. It featured a majority of Leave supporters and came to the conclusion that the UK should remain in the Single Market and Customs Union and 7 out of 10 participants in a majority Leave pool backed the continuation of free movement of people. This isn't exactly surprising though as consistent polling has shown that between a third and 40% of Brexit voters want to stay in the single market. On top of that polling has shown support for May's deal in 30's and support for a No Deal in the 30's, it is reasonable to assume that the remaining 30 odd percent back neither because again they want to stay in the single market. I think the reason why Brexiteer politicians don't want a Citizens Assembly is that it will show that what the public want is different to what they want, which is to carry out what Brexit has always been from the start a posh boy Coup d'état that will break free the UK from the EU's planned consolidated tax plan, which was why Leave was funded in part by tax dodgers, and the EU's laws on workers rights and standards on items like chlorinated chicken that will allow their pay masters to continue to avoid funding services like the NHS and to carve up the country for themselves and their mates. All disguised in Neanderthal Jingoism.

Moving away from Brexit a bit I think the value that a CA could have is that it could play a role in restoring a bit of public faith in our democracy. There seems to be a consensus among many that we have a Direct Democracy, that MPs are there to carry out the wishes of those that voted for them to the letter. Given that most MPs are elected with less than 50% of the vote, and so in carrying out the wishes of those that voted for them would result in them acting in a way that was contrary to the desires of the majority of their constituents, how they arrive at this conclusion is beyond me. Our Democracy is a Representative Parliamentary one, where MPs make decisions on our behalf based on the info they get from briefings, committees etc. Perhaps however this example of Deliberative Democracy might act as a bridge between what is perceived and what is actual and results from CAs would be included in manifestos or worked into Bills that go through Parliament. Might that restore a bit of faith?

Who knows but Brexit aside I thinks its worth a shot, if anything the results from the Irish abortion referendum showed a public that was better informed, a better informed public equals a better democracy.

If the UK delay Brexit, the EU are going to bill us a billion euros a month

(11-03-2019 10:08 )Charlemagne Wrote: [ -> ]If the UK delay Brexit, the EU are going to bill us a billion euros a month

Can we get them to bill Rees-Mogg, Johnson & Farage directly as they are responsible for this shitshow

^^ Where did you get that info Esther Mcvey

May says that she's got an improved Brexit deal from Brussels.
But will it be enough to win today's Meaningful vote

Any improvement may not even be enough