(20-10-2020 07:45 )lovebabes56 Wrote: I can only assume Nixon's was so high considering as I think it was a landslide victory when he won and got hit by Watergate and nice to see Ronald Reagan score so highly but had expected a few more points though but still that shows how widely regarded & respected he was as President.
Just a few more points for Trump to lose te fall below GW Bush and I reckon the debate this week probably might decide his fate and final rating.
Correct on Nixon.
The Watergate burglary happened in 1972, but it took over a year for all the dirty laundry to be exposed, so it didn't really affect the election. That also explains the odd Gerald Ford outcome. Ford was not a disliked President, with numbers that probably should have seen him re-elected. But he was still weighed down by association to Nixon whose net approval was as low as -36% when he resigned.
In 1984, Reagan was on the rise from a low point of -20%. That was around 1982, when the pain of 'reaganomics' was very raw. By the time he was up for re-election, with his "morning in America" campaign, the economy was turning in his favour. He'd reach a high of +44% before the Iran-Contra affair would knock him back to about 3%.
I don't think Trump will lose or gain much at all in the next two weeks. A key feature of this presidency has been the extraordinary consistency of the approval ratings. He has oscillated in a narrow band between -10% and -15% since his inauguration. Almost nothing can budge it.
Take something like impeachment. He didn't drop much when he was impeached; he didn't gain much when he was acquitted. On Russia, he barely moved through the height of the hysteria; he didn't climb after his 'exoneration'. He was on a downward trajectory during the shutdown, but he reverted to the mean as soon as it ended. And throughout Covid, he has never really enjoyed a "rally around the flag" effect -- like GW Bush experienced after 9/11 -- and he didn't get a sympathy boost when he contracted it. But his numbers also don't reflect a widespread perception of mishandling the crisis.
I think it's partly a reflection of his base. The identity-politics MAGA crowd will back him no matter what. Then there's the Republican faithful who would support a roller-skating monkey if it got them tax cuts, judges and a better stock portfolio. So there is a hardcore base that is immune to any news -- good or bad. Because the economy was strong, the approval rating has a high floor.
(And at the risk of getting my butt hurt again, I'll just repeat that Trump only managed a strong and growing economy that he inherited from Obama, who rescued a wounded economy that he inherited from Bush).
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