Scottish Independence (the sequel)

(26-08-2014 20:48 )Scottishbloke Wrote:  Alex Salmond last night crushed Alistair Darling, one of the moments that really made me laugh was when Salmond went here we have a Labour man defending Conservative policies it says it all which left Darling red faced and furious

I agree SB. I found it a fascinating debate because it really appeared to be a game changer. In the last couple of weeks I'd concluded that the 'no' lobby had already won, given the polls and the strength of their campaign.

But something changed last night, reflected in Salmond's confident performance against Darling's shambolic attempt. The audience was also much warmer to Salmond.

I'm not sure whether it's enough for the 'yes' vote to win but it will certainly make the 18th a lot more interesting.

If the English were allowed to vote it would be a landslide for the SNP for sure. Either way the UK as we know it is over.

Alex Salmond tried to make the debate like a general election bringing up things like the bedroom tax. It felt like he was trying to make the debate a judgement on Tory/Lib Dem government which is why he has always pushed for a debate with David Cameron. This is a not a vote on whether you approve of the current Westminister government, we can't try independence for a couple of years and come back into the UK if it does not work, if we vote to leave there is no coming back in. I hope Scots make the right decision and say No Thanks to independence

Salmond scoring cheap points over Darling in the second debate is neither here nor there. This isn't a presidential contest, it is far more important than that.

Alex Salmond and his SNP contemporaries have had their entire adult lives to formulate a clear plan for an independent Scotland and have failed to do so. If they had done there would be a clear majority in favour of independence. Instead they are hoping for a sizeable late swing in their favour and at best will sneak a narrow victory - would that be a ringing endorsement to launch a new country?

Salmond insists that Scotland's oil reserves are so valuable and still so plentiful that an independent Scotland would clearly prosper. If this is the case why wouldn't such a sure fire winner of an independent state want to establish its own currency and be in total control of its own monetary policy? Even if they ignored the main UK political parties and used sterling they would not have any say in the setting of interest rates. You only have to look at the troubles of the Eurozone to see what not having the right interest rate level does to the economies of periphery countries. You don't have to go back that many years to find Salmond extolling the virtues of the Euro as the currency of his independent Scotland.

If Scotland votes yes it will still require an Act of the Westminster Parliament to dissolve the Union. There is no question of this not happening due to the constitutional convention of obeying the results of referendums, but this Act and the overall financial settlement to severe the ties will take considerable time. In simple terms this is a divorce and it was already going to be quite a bitter one, but this will be even more so the case if the yes vote is by a small margin. Salmond's threats to not take a share of the national debt if an independent Scotland cannot use sterling will only prolong the arguments and will most likely lead to the first of many legal challenges over a whole range of issues to be decided.

If Scotland does narrowly vote yes the next couple of years in politics on these Isles will be dominated and gridlocked with the severing of the Union. My suspicion is that the complexity of this task and the lack of SNP plans in several key areas will become abundantly clear and the tide of opinion in Scotland itself will swing back against independence and there will be calls for a second referendum to go back to the certainty and security offered by the Union.

Hopefully the polls are right and Scotland will vote no and save destroying a political and monetary union that has served us all very well.

It will be interesting to see if Scotland does vote no whether Salmond will resign on a point of principle. Conversely if Scotland votes yes there is a school of thought among constitutional experts that Cameron should be honour bound to resign as he will be the PM in situ when the Union broke apart. After all the official title of his party is the Conservative and 'Unionist' Party. However, both are modern careerist type politicians and I don't think there is much honour to be found in contemporary British politics.

Having spoken to some friends in Scotland the suspicion I have had throughout the campaign appears to have become strengthened. Almost all of them were undecided a year ago and remain so to this very day.
The debates between Salmond and Darling did nothing to make up their minds and a few of them believe they will head to the voting booth not really knowing which way to go.
I believe both the yes and no campaigns have been a dismal failure.
Cynical, negative, speculative and hopelessly devoid of any really useful debate at hand.
Claim and counter claim with both sides picking out certain bits of certain studies and interpreting them for their own ends.
Both sides plucking out figures out of what seems like thin air.
The debates turning into nothing more than a shambolic shouting match.
Patronising nonsense from both campaigns who have imo let down the many undecided voters.
There will inevitably be those who are staunchly in favour of independence and those equally staunch unionists.
But they are not the people who will decide the result imo.
The practical, logistical, economic and constitutional case had to be made on both sides.
To this point both sides have abjectly failed in this responsibility.
In the end I suspect it will be a narrow margin of victory for either side based on a substantial number of voters going on nothing other than gut instinct.
A very unsatisfactory process from the start will imo produce an utterly inconclusive result.
I feel very sorry for those undecided voters who are being asked to make such a hugely fundamental decision without being given satisfactory debate or information to help them decide.
They care about their country as I'm sure all the voters do but they do not want to make a wrong decision .
Very sad.

^^^ A far better analysis and summary than I have seen in any of the broadsheets for the past six months.

I've got to say first and foremost that the tension up here is unbelievable, it's causing me many sleepless nights just thinking about how much could change in the next 2 weeks.

Most the people I have spoken to who were also previously undecided are voting yes, I had an argument with a no voter the other day who basically called me bloody minded putting patriotism before common-sense.

At the moment the No vote according to all the polls still maintains the lead but only by a very slim margin, 49% now say Yes to Independence.

A lot of reasons for this, those who previously voted Scottish Labour have now switched to SNP, also the prospect of the outcome of the next general election is also playing heavily on the minds of the voters.

For example last week we had a Torie defect to UKIP. The UK is now in real danger of UKIP coming to power and I personally do not wish to live under a regime run by racists, liars and bigots. I wouldn't trust that Nigel Farage to run a pie stall nevermind a whole country.

Option 2 The Conservatives win the next General Election, Cameron steps down and that crackhead Boris Johnson becomes the next Prime Minister.

Politics south of the border is corrupt, Britain in no longer great, currently we are living under the worse Government in my living memory, in 4 years since Cameron took over my taxes have gone up, the price of living has gone up substantially but my wages haven't. Cameron don't give a fuck and frankly I'm fed up with his lies. Goodbye Britain and English rule as I get ready to usher in a new era of Independence.

maybe there will be a studio 66 scotland if you go independent

Hmmm corrupt politicans south of the border. would love to see how many MSP's are fiddling there expenses.

hmmmm lets not forget Dennis Mcshane most senior polititcan to be done for defrauding the taxpayer was born in glasgow and most of the mp's that were done and had to pay money back were labour not tories. you will still be voting labour into the Scottish System

thats the thing with rich tories they dont have to rob of the state they already have money

and UKIP has about same chance of getting power in westminister as the SNP has winning south of the border.

reckon they will only get about 10-20 seats if that

I would say to your undecided friends that if they still don't know what they are voting for come 18th September then vote NO

(29-08-2014 12:44 )snookered147 Wrote:  Having spoken to some friends in Scotland the suspicion I have had throughout the campaign appears to have become strengthened. Almost all of them were undecided a year ago and remain so to this very day.
The debates between Salmond and Darling did nothing to make up their minds and a few of them believe they will head to the voting booth not really knowing which way to go.
I believe both the yes and no campaigns have been a dismal failure.
Cynical, negative, speculative and hopelessly devoid of any really useful debate at hand.
Claim and counter claim with both sides picking out certain bits of certain studies and interpreting them for their own ends.
Both sides plucking out figures out of what seems like thin air.
The debates turning into nothing more than a shambolic shouting match.
Patronising nonsense from both campaigns who have imo let down the many undecided voters.
There will inevitably be those who are staunchly in favour of independence and those equally staunch unionists.
But they are not the people who will decide the result imo.
The practical, logistical, economic and constitutional case had to be made on both sides.
To this point both sides have abjectly failed in this responsibility.
In the end I suspect it will be a narrow margin of victory for either side based on a substantial number of voters going on nothing other than gut instinct.
A very unsatisfactory process from the start will imo produce an utterly inconclusive result.
I feel very sorry for those undecided voters who are being asked to make such a hugely fundamental decision without being given satisfactory debate or information to help them decide.
They care about their country as I'm sure all the voters do but they do not want to make a wrong decision .
Very sad.