Politics - The Non-Brexit Thread.

Some thoughts from a Twitter thread on Hamilton by-election from Prof of Politics at Manchester University Rob Ford:

Expectations matter - this was an area where Labour won a Westminster by-election on a massive swing less than two years ago and won in a general election less than one year ago yet Labour’s victory yesterday is a massive shock given poling woes.

Scotland is still different - people based expectations of a 3rd place Lab finish on British polling drop but forget Labour advanced far further in Scotland than elsewhere. Labour standing still in Hamilton is actuallly consistent with Lab rise and fall in Scotland

The SNP haven’t rebounded - their decline over past few years hasn’t reversed, suggesting a more fragmented Scottish Parl contest coming next year

Reform are now a force on Scotland - 26% is easily Farage’s best ever Scottish result and while he didn’t win this time, he is still set to become a major force in Scottish politics for the first time next year

Scottish Tories are in deep trouble - granted, this isn’t one of the parts of Scotland where they do better but this was a dire result for them. Reform may be a more appealing option for socially conservative unionists, displacing them altogether in much of Scotland

Fragmentation makes things unpredictable! Only 5.5% separated first and third here. Such a narrow result could easily have broken differently and local candidates and campaigns could have made a difference.

This will be a massive morale boost for Labour in general & campaigns teams in particular - losing Runcorn by a tiny margin will have hurt and polling wise the picture has been uniformly grim. Pulling out a surprise win and confounding conventional wisdom will put a spring back in many steps.