Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

The whole thing seems to have been another catastrophic failure of Russian intelligence, as much as a stroke of genius by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have been signalling for weeks about an offensive in the South, resulting in Russia taking troops and armour from the North and East to reinforce the South.
It beggars belief that the Ukrainians were able to assemble an entire battlegroup in the Northeast and the Russians knew nothing about it. Yet that seems to be exactly what happened

Rumours abound that the Ukrainians have taken over 8000 sq km. Official figures don't support this yet, but that may be intentional. Reports also that 10,000 Russians are cut off south of Izyum, and negotiating for surrender.

It all seems to be moving so fast the Ukrainians biggest problem could be their own supply lines.

Julia Davis of The Daily Beast has posted some clips of Russian Federal News discussing the recent Ukranian advancements in the war.

Many of them are questioning the whole thing though they blame those around Putin rather than the man himself. Some are trying to play down the significance of what has happened, while others are more honest in their assessment. Some want Russia to go all out to win the war and one host reminds his panel some of whom are critical that those who panic get shot.

(11-09-2022 21:47 )The Silent Majority Wrote:  It beggars belief that the Ukrainians were able to assemble an entire battlegroup in the Northeast and the Russians knew nothing about it. Yet that seems to be exactly what happened

I've done a bit of checking on this and it appears that this really isn't what happened. The Russians actually DID KNOW.

There were warnings online for about a month from Russian military bloggers about a Ukrainian buildup in the Kharkiv area, but nobody did anything about it. Something appears to be broken in Russia's command system which makes them slow to respond to changes on the battlefield and slow to respond to intelligence.

The earliest warning I could find was dated 7 August, stating that Ukraine was 'reinforcing its positions in the Izyum front despite publicly hyping an offensive in Kherson'. This was posted on both Telegram and Twitter. On 30 August several Russian soldiers based in Izyum warned their commander of an impending attack on their positions, but never heard anything back.

So I think it's less a failure of intelligence and more a failure of military structure and culture. The Russian military's decision-making is very centralized which doesn't help, but maybe information isn't being passed up by those who should be doing so. Or perhaps it was passed up but those in high command and remote from the action didn't take it seriously.

(13-09-2022 12:16 )BarrieBF Wrote:  Something appears to be broken in Russia's command system which makes them slow to respond to changes on the battlefield and slow to respond to intelligence.

Russia has suffered an unprecedented casualty rate in senior officers. About a dozen Generals, I think, and many more Colonels and below.
This is bound to result in a lot of fast-track promotions for junior officers who don't have enough experience, or maybe even ability.

One message is being pushed more than any other on Russian state TV these days - the claim that there were huge numbers of foreigners involved in the recent Ukrainian counter-offensive and that Ukraine couldn't have achieved anything without them.

^Ironic considering they sent Chechen nutters and were attempting to recruit from every tinpot shithole on the planet .

(13-09-2022 14:23 )The Silent Majority Wrote:  Russia has suffered an unprecedented casualty rate in senior officers. About a dozen Generals, I think, and many more Colonels and below.
This is bound to result in a lot of fast-track promotions for junior officers who don't have enough experience, or maybe even ability.

Yes very good point. The high casualty rate in the officer corps must have had a very disruptive effect. Putin keep sacking his generals probably hasn't helped much either. I saw on Sky News that a general was sacked recently who had only been appointed 2 weeks before.

The talent pool empties rather quickly when defenestration is your preferred method of discipline.