US Election & Presidency

(09-10-2020 09:58 )HannahsPet Wrote:  Expecting an epic meltdown the nobel peace prize is announced today and bookies have either WHO or Greta thunberg winning

And Pelosi's started a commission to look into Congress enacting the 25th amendment.

It's not going to come to anything this close to the election. She's clearly trying to wind him up

It's going to be a fun day

yeah the way she was all dressed in Orange with an facemask with oranges on it

To quote a phrase ; -
"You know when you've been Tango-ed!"

---

I'm beginning to think is Trump Davros' evil twin brother?

(09-10-2020 10:31 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  I'm beginning to think is Trump Davros' evil twin brother?

That's a bit harsh. Davros doesn't deserve that

(08-10-2020 17:14 )lancealot790 Wrote:  Don’t bother, left wing nut jobs are not interested in debate, they only listen to people who agree with them.

It really is quite telling the silence I receive when I've bought up Biden's seediness that is captured right on camera, I think taking place even in the White House. That isn't an allegation, that's something everyone can see. If I wanted to, I could bring up the allegations towards Biden himself...

(08-10-2020 20:34 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  A bit unfair.

I think if you read back the last dozen or so pages of this thread you'll find that many of us have been more than happy to debate Slabhead. And we've been a lot more measured in our tone toward him than he's been towards us. When it was suggested that he "leave" the conversation, most of us even defended his right to post.

I haven't told anyone to go away, even though I've been told a couple of times to eff off lol, though I do appreciate those defending my right to speak. At worst I've told someone to shut up in a jokey 'outraged' manner, which I had to clarify. Otherwise my tone has been perfectly measured.

(08-10-2020 20:34 )Goodfella3041 Wrote:  What I'm reluctant to do is take the bait on these absurd "creepy Joe" accusations. He's an overly tactile, close-talking grandpa.

Yes, I'm giving the man who wrote this letter the benefit of the doubt: An Open Letter To Stanford Survivor.

The sexual predator who boasted about "grabbin'em by the pussy" doesn't deserve the same benefit.

Lame excuse. Not every grandpa likes kissing their granddaughters on the lips or worse, being touchy freely towards underage kids. There is nothing 'grandfatherly' about the latter in particular

(08-10-2020 23:33 )The Silent Majority Wrote:  

(08-10-2020 17:14 )lancealot790 Wrote:  Don’t bother, left wing nut jobs are not interested in debate, they only listen to people who agree with them.

Sorry to disappoint you.

Though I suppose, if you're a far right extremist, everybody seems left wing.

Thoughts on 'trans women' being allowed in women's changing rooms? Let's see how oh so minor a problem far leftism is compared to the scary behemoth of the far right

EDIT: Also, I haven't seen anyone here say a thing that befits them being described as 'far right'.

I think most of us wouldn't want to be pushed into a situation or position to state whether we are on the far left or far right, and likely much prefer to keep that sort of view to ourselves and not be public about it.

---

Trump has no idea when he next likely to be tested but is to hold an event from the White House for his supporters. Doubt it will be allowed to go ahead if he is positive.

This is a fun game to play if you're an avid election-watcher: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

You can select "blank map" and then run your own scenario of how it might go.

I just did a version where I plotted what I think are all the "safe" Democratic and Republic states (i.e. a >90% chance of winning). That gets me to 252 safe electoral college votes for Biden and 187 for Trump.

BLUE STATES

The "safe" Biden states are the usual democratic strongholds: the West Coast (California, Washington, Oregon); the north east seaboard (from Virginia to Maine); Minnesota, Illinois and Hawaii. From the look of polls, I'm also giving Biden two of the rust belt battlegrounds: Wisconsin and Michigan. These voted pretty heavily for Obama in 2008 and 2012, then broke for Trump by the tiniest of margins in 2016 (just 12,000 votes in Wisconsin). I think they're coming home in 2020.

RED STATES

On the Republican side, I've assumed that all the usual Republic strongholds will stay red, including all of the South (Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, etc.), and most of the central and mountain states. Every election, the Democrats get terribly excited about 'flipping' Texas and its 38 votes, but I still can't see it happening in 2020. He can have Texas too.

BATTLEGROUNDS

That leaves 6 key states and 99 electoral college votes up for grabs: Nevada (6); Arizona (11); North Carolina (15); Ohio (18); Pennsylvania (20); and our old friend Florida (29). Biden needs another 18 of those to win; Trump needs 84.

Ohio is a dead heat, so I'm giving that to Trump -- just to be safe.

North Carolina's polling averages are leaning Democrat, but there was a big shift after the debate. When memories of that debacle fade, I think it will drift back to an even race, so I'm letting Trump have that too.

Arizona has similar odds, but Biden has been building momentum there since August and the lead appears to be holding at 3%-5%. And if you only look at the A/B-rated polls, that lead looks more like 4% to 6%. Biden will flip Arizona.

Nevada looks pretty solidly against Trump. With the exception of a couple of D-rated Survey Monkeys, the last poll to show a Trump advantage was in November 2019. Viva Las Vegas ... Biden is having Nevada too.

AND THE WINNER IS...

That gets me to a Biden advantage (but still not a win) of 269 to 220, with only Florida and Pennsylvania to play for.

Trump needs them both to win; Biden just needs to win one.

Biden has a 4-point lead over Trump in Florida and FiveThirtyEight give him a 71% chance of winning. But it's the 20th anniversary of the hanging-chads fiasco and I'd never underestimate the possibility of going to sleep with the world making sense and waking up to discover that Floridians have turned it upside down. So I'm giving Florida to Trump as a present to Slabhead. Happy Halloween

But I'm not generous with Pennsylvania. Creepy Joe Biden seems to be running away with the state -- probably because he somehow manages to sneak the fact that he grew up in Scranton into virtually every answer to any question. He's had an 8% to 10% advantage since May and the latest A/B-rated polls have him at a double-digit lead. Biden wins Pennsylvania.

My final prediction (for now):

Biden 289-249 Trump

Trump's been bigging up the Regeneron... with his cure for Covid.
Demand in the drug has now surged..

I bet the shareholders will be delighted, whoever they are.