Europe, Referendum & Brexit (formerly Europe..IN or OUT??)

but most european countries that are not in the EU like switzerland do have deals to access the single market. all have to accept free movement of people and have to abide by eu regulations to access the market

even turkey has access to single market but it comes at a cost https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_U...for_Turkey

(18-06-2016 13:58 )SecretAgent Wrote:  Plenty of answers have been given but you don't believe anything the remain side say and seem to trust implicitly the Brexiteers gamble that it would be ok. I'll leave you to do your own research if you can be bothered. Let me just end though with the FACT that one of the few economists who the Leave camp say is correct (Patrick Minsford, because he supports them) has stated that if we exit it will probably be the end of out manufacturing capability but thats ok because we are mainly a services economy.

You seem to be running away with yourself a little here, you seem to be reading and intepreting what you want to.

To recap, I said right from the get go I know nothing of politics (then people wonder why I repeat so much), least of all about the complex finantial workings of it. This is a large issue, I came on here (as well as other places) to get an idea of what the arguments are. both for and against. When I have a very important issue to decide, I question it till it cannot be questioned any more, and i want facts and figures, that is my scientific training I'm afraid - you don't assume anything.

For the most part I have seen nothing within the in argument that cannot be challanged comfortably, EXCEPT, trade. Therefore, albeit a complex subject, trade is the one I am goign to question most.

I am not a rabid out campainger as you seem to think.

Back to trade. And this is the thing I do not understand, America is not in the EU and I am as sure as sure that they will never join, that they will want to be their own self governing, self regulating country. The thought that a law past in Brussels would HAVE to be implimentent and every american have to abide by that law made by a bunch of europeans would be a complete anathema to each and every American breathing; and would probbaly be against some amendment or other.

Yet the EU happily trades with the US. Does the US have all these tariffs and charges you speak off? If so, how do they cope with it? Or is there some special arrangement goign on here?

How much does these non EU members pay for access to the single market? If it's so crippling why don't they just join the EU? or is it a case that even with the charges it is ACTUALLY better that way than being full members of the EU?

Contrary to what you might think, eveything you have said can be questioned, it's is not as simple as you seem to think.

As for manufacturing, depends on who you talk to, one camp as it it the all died off being IN the EU over the past 40 years. The other Britian is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world.

http://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufa...tatistics/

Quote:Manufacturing contributes £6.7tr to the global economy. Contrary to common belief, UK manufacturing is strong with the UK currently the 11th largest manufacturing nation in the world. Manufacturing makes up 11% of UK GVA and 54% of UK exports and directly employs 2.6 million people

Overall, it's looking very much like if Britian were to leave to EU she would continue to trade with Europe, the idea that this would stop is just complete nonsense, but would be free to make her OWN trade agreements with other countries of the world as well.

Any talk of being at the back of the queue or finantially preventative charges smacks of nothing but black mail and infair prejudice that there must be some law against - well we'll trade with the US, becasue they are also a large country to export to, but we'll charge yYOU 6 times more for the same thng becasue you didn't join our club, so there.

(18-06-2016 14:36 )terence Wrote:  ok that's me, i'm out.

You seemed to have selected what you want and clearly not understood my point, some would say deliberatly so.

We are in the EU and the single market, the question is, what affects will being out - so yes, it's not a matter of being in, but being OUT that's the issue.

(18-06-2016 14:27 )The Silent Majority Wrote:  Depends what you're trading. If you're selling a product into Europe and your profit is, say, 20% of turnover, then a 20% tariff on your goods will kill your trade stone dead. Either you absorb the cost and try to operate without making a profit or you increase your prices to cover the cost, making you uncompetitive with other companies who are still in the single market.

Either way, you're fucked.

So how does America and as well as the other countries trade with the EU then if this is the case?

We are now slowly getting to the point I have been trying to make.

As i said, many many many pages ago, the only place I could see where Britian would be worse off is by trade, but this would mean the EU puting a much higher tariff on UK goods as opposed to goods being imported from the US for example.

This to me would seem unfair and probably against some law or other.

You couldn't just say, well, we will charge america 5% tarrifs on their goods, buuuut, the UK is going to have to pay 20%. There would have to be a very good reason for this.

It would be like a shop in london selling an american tourist a london calander for £10, then a French man walks in and saying, 'ah French? that will be £30 please'


IF, the tariffs are the same for none EU countries as it would be for the UK, then there would be no reason why the UK couldn't trade and remain competative.

(18-06-2016 14:57 )HannahsPet Wrote:  but most european countries that are not in the EU like switzerland do have deals to access the single market. all have to accept free movement of people and have to abide by eu regulations to access the market

even turkey has access to single market but it comes at a cost https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_U...for_Turkey

So to have any access to the free market you HAVE to accept free movement as part of the deal?

Interesting.

Does anybody know the root of this free movement and why it came about? What bennefits did the people who dreamed it up think it would have?

Not sure I have the willpower for this but here goes:

Even if we are out of the EU any product an exporter sells into the EU will have to meet any relevant EU standards. Today we take part in deciding those standards. If we exit they are imposed on our exporters.

If you assume that an exporter here has exactly the same costs of production as say a manufacturer in France or Germany then today with no tariffs our exporter can compete on equal terms. If tariffs are imposed after exit then quite simply our exporters become uncompetitive = loss of sales = possible loss of jobs.

Wackawoo you talk about other counties around the world - well if their costs of production are lower then maybe they can cover the tariffs and still be competitive. Remember we are still seen as a high wage country even within Europe

Brexiteers claim we are special and that the EU will roll over and grant us free trade terms because they need us. There is absolutely no proof about this whatsoever. None. Nil. Zilch. No other european country gets free access. Their is always a price to pay. Ask yourself why the EU would ever grant free access? As a businessman I can tell you it makes no sense at all. It's not blackmail its pure commercial logic

Brexiteers claim we will get free access because the German car makers will insist upon it so protect their sales into the UK. Really? German cars are already generally dearer than other models because they are premium brands. Would I really mind paying a few thousand more for my new Mercedes? Nope.

We are world class in Financial Services. Brexiteers have told Bankers who have warned of the consequences to keep their noses out & stop scaring people about job losses. Well I was out last night and 3 of them were bankers - all with different banks in very senior positions. They all said jobs wold be lost as they would have to move things into the EU. In Financial Services a banker in one country can conduct business in another EU country under what is known as passporting. If we leave the EU that ends. That means that all those pesky foreign banks who employ thousands of people here and pay taxes here so they can work throughout europe will have to move some people from the UK to say Paris or Frankfurt.

The EU could eaisly also legislate that certain financial business had to be done from within the Euro zone. We vetoed a proposal on that so lots of business stayed in London. If we exit then that can easily go as well.

Hope that helps

(18-06-2016 15:27 )SecretAgent Wrote:  Not sure I have the willpower for this but here goes:

Even if we are out of the EU any product an exporter sells into the EU will have to meet any relevant EU standards. Today we take part in deciding those standards. If we exit they are imposed on our exporters.


Hope that helps

Excellent responce, well reasoned.

I'd think you'd need more facts and figures to explain trade with the rest of the work is down to lower wages, though.

(18-06-2016 15:19 )wackawoo Wrote:  So how does America and as well as the other countries trade with the EU then if this is the case?

Depends what's being traded. Some goods will still be profitable with tariffs, some won't. Alot depends on cost of production.

(18-06-2016 15:19 )wackawoo Wrote:  You couldn't just say, well, we will charge america 5% tarrifs on their goods, buuuut, the UK is going to have to pay 20%. There would have to be a very good reason for this.

Their game, their rules.

(18-06-2016 15:19 )wackawoo Wrote:  It would be like a shop in london selling an american tourist a london calander for £10, then a French man walks in and saying, 'ah French? that will be £30 please'

No, it wouldn't. It would be like a shop in London exporting a calendar to America for £10 and exporting a calendar to France for £10, but the French customs charging £20 to let the calendar into the country.

(18-06-2016 15:19 )wackawoo Wrote:  IF, the tariffs are the same for none EU countries as it would be for the UK, then there would be no reason why the UK couldn't trade and remain competative.

The UK needs to be competitive with other EU countries more than non-EU countries, as far as Europe is concerned.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20448450


With small and medium-sized firms freed from EU regulation, there could be a jobs boom. More than 90% of the UK economy is not involved in trade with the EU, yet still bears the burden of these rules, says the Bruges Group. The Eurosceptic think tank claims pulling out of the EU but staying in the EEA

(18-06-2016 15:35 )wackawoo Wrote:  

(18-06-2016 15:27 )SecretAgent Wrote:  

I'd think you'd need more facts and figures to explain trade with the rest of the work is down to lower wages, though.

I didn't say it was - it was meant as an example.