US Election & Presidency

yeah i have a bad feeling this aint going to end well only hope is that should the worst happen and trump wins is that democrats win both houses so he cant get anything done

if Biden wins will he demolish Trump's Wall?

(02-11-2020 06:48 )HannahsPet Wrote:  yeah i have a bad feeling this aint going to end well only hope is that should the worst happen and trump wins is that democrats win both houses so he cant get anything done

Even if Democrats won both houses I think, Trump would see his executive orders & the Supreme Court as a way to push through policies though.



Lets's hope common sense prevails on Nov 4th or we will witness further chaos.

TRUMP OUT!!!!!

(01-11-2020 20:26 )HannahsPet Wrote:  Fucking hell Trump calling biden a Castro puppet

man is delusional

It's quite clever really.

Trump needs Florida's votes. There are lots of ex Cuban pat's in Florida.
So by associating Biden with Castro he's hoping to turn a few of their votes.
Even if it's untrue.

(02-11-2020 06:48 )HannahsPet Wrote:  ...only hope is that should the worst happen and trump wins is that democrats win both houses so he cant get anything done

I'm not sure that's possible.

If the polling miss is so large and in Trump's direction that he actually wins the presidency, then it is definitely large enough to ensure Republicans hold the Senate.

My hope is that pollsters over-corrected after 2016 and have been so scrupulous about re-weighting their samples with 'Trumpy' segments of the population that any polling miss this year is in the other direction. That would mean a landslide for Biden, a victory for "the centre", and a reckoning for the Republican Party.

what %'s for Trump win/Biden win?

This is part of what got me nervous.
First 20 minutes especially relevant.



https://youtu.be/AiQHB4PqCBE

Two very poor candidates for leader of the free world....Biden does not inspire confidence and is too old and not relevant. Trump's track record over last four years shows his total inadequacy to be re-elected. America and we need a strong leader who does not pander to their own interests and can lead the USA forward and allow it to take its place again as a leader in fairness and equality. Biden should get it so the least of bad two choice.....

(02-11-2020 10:41 )lovebabes56 Wrote:  what %'s for Trump win/Biden win?

According to the main election models, these are TRUMP's probabilities of winning:

Racetothewh.com: 1.6%
Lean Tossup: 3.0%
The Economist: 4.0%
Electoral Polls: 4.9%
Reed Forecasts: 6.9%
JHK Forecast: 9.7%
FiveThirtyEight: 10.0%
Ourprogress.org: 10.8%
Decision Desk HQ: 11.9%
Plural Vote: 34.0%

I have a real preference for FiveThirtyEight because they are so transparent about how they weight different polls and what other variables go into the model. They predicted all 50 states correctly in 2012 and in 2016, they came closest -- giving Trump a one-in-three chance of winning.

They are now giving Trump a one-in-ten chance, which -- of course -- is a real chance. Things with one-in-ten chances happen all the time.

So despite the lopsided odds, it still feels like a race...

(In loving memory of Slabhead, I will now shove all this data up my arse until Wednesday morning...)

I'm sure that you lubed first befor you inserted...