US Election & Presidency

The latest FT poll has in 279/125 for Biden

Is that a British or US poll - and do we know how many ex- pat US citizens living here are voting?

The FT doesn’t do polls, it just tracks the ones that are published and then models a projected outcome.

These are the current predictions by the main poll trackers:

Financial Times
Biden 279-125 Trump
(with 134 toss-ups)

RealClearPolitics
Biden 232-125 Trump
(with 181 toss-ups)

Economist
Biden 356-182 Trump

Five Thirty Eight
Biden 343-195 Trump

Who would your smart money be on now?

BAN NIGEL FARAGE!!!

One of Trump's medical advisers has said that Trump's election rallies could be superspreaders of the virus.
But to Trump it won't matter, so long as they vote first, die later.

Not just the virus. Several had to hospitalised in Omaha after being left stranded in the cold at an airfield in the middle of nowhere.
Trump got out the plane, spent 45mins bitching about the cold, and how he didn't really want to be there, then got back on the plane and fucked off.

However, just to even things up, several more were hospitalised in Tampa last night after a Trump rally, due to the heat.

Meanwhile Biden wound up a rally early after it started to rain, because he didn't want people to get wet...

Trump is flirting with a single-digit probability of winning in the FiveThirtyEight forecast now.

He’s down to 10% when I last checked, with a Biden win at 89%, and a 269-tie at 1%.

The best I can tell, this weakening of Trump’s chances is probably due to Biden’s strength in the midwest polls. Biden is so far ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota that even a polling error the size of 2016 would still see him win those states. He looks pretty strong in Pennsylvania too.

That means Biden only needs one of the following states to PROBABLY win the the election and two of them to almost CERTAINLY win the election:

- Florida
- Arizona
- Georgia
- North Carolina
- Iowa
- Ohio

They are all competitive states, but Biden is leading in the first four and the other two are toss-ups. It’s hard to imagine Trump winning all of them — hence his rapidly shrinking odds.

...Hunter Biden innuendo isn’t gonna do the trick.

I see that yesterday Trump tweeted that Biden planned to increase refugee immigration by 700% increasing the threat from “radical islamic terrorism” in 3 states, Minnesota, Michigan & Pennsylvania. How curious that he is behind in the polls in all those states.

(30-10-2020 13:57 )The Silent Majority Wrote:  ...
Trump got out the plane, spent 45mins bitching about the cold, and how he didn't really want to be there, then got back on the plane and fucked off.
...

Bet that went down well with those who had turned up to greet him!! I hope if he ever goes to Alaska at any point in his life, he won't ever bitch about it being old ever again!!