US Election & Presidency

(02-06-2020 22:07 )Tumble_Drier Wrote:  Oh look. He's found an old VHS tape in one of those Library Cases in the loft

more than likely he found that Stormy Daniels tape!

It's a difficult one to call, Donald Trump is the favourite, incumbents have the home field advantage, there have been very few one term presidents in recent history once you remove JFK & Ford due to their mitigating circumstances. The Coronavirus has caused a real headache for right wing populist governments because it is something that has affected everyone & be it Trump or Boris they can't culture wars their way out of it.

As terrible a thing as it is the death of George Floyd could not of come at a better time for Trump. Trump, like all right wing populists, was elected on the politics of racial and cultural resentment. These protests & the ensuing chaos that has arisen out of them feed right into the narrative that got him elected in the first place, it allows him to move the election back onto his turf, the us vs them culture wars. People who attend protests and chant "Black lives Matter" vote less than those who sit quietly at home watching them on TV & saying to themselves "All Lives Matter" and the scenes that we are seeing on TV will turbo charge them.

Yet it is still difficult to call because for all the overwhelming power of the white silent majority Trump lost the popular vote by 3m the reason he won was because he was able to flip the Blue Wall states in America's rust belt. He won those states by a combined total 70,000 votes. The reason he was able to win those states was because swing voters who voted for Obama in 08 & 12 voted for him & there was a lower turnout of African American voters for Clinton than there was for Obama.

In addition to the blue wall states Trump was able to win Michigan a traditional swing state by a margin of 0.2%. Trump has spent a lot of time during the pandemic attacking Democratic states & their Governors, attacking California & New York isn't going to hurt Trump he ain't winning them if he manged to get everyone in those states laid, attacking Michigan however where in 2018 the Democratic candidate for Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, won the state for the first time for the Dems since 2010 53.34% to 43.81% compared to a 50.9% to
46.9% for the Republicans in 2014 a considerable swing may backfire on Trump.

The question is can Biden do the business? He is more popular with African American voters than Clinton so that will help him in those states where they did not turn out for her as opposed to Obama & he is more popular with blue collar Americans as he is very much one of them in terms of background, he speaks their language. Will these protests be a turning point for young & ethnic minority (particularly African American) voters where they finally realise that waiting for politicians to give them a reason to vote is not working & they need to get to the ballot box?

Who will be Biden's VP. In 2008 Obama was smart in picking Biden because he picked someone that complimented him. Obama's weaknesses were that he was black, young & inexperienced particularly with foreign policy & had an air of Harvard Law elitism about him. Biden was white, older, a DC veteran, strong on foreign policy as he had been the chair of the Senate's Foreign relations committee & blue collar. Conversely Clinton ballsed hers up by picking Tim Kaine who was basically her clone, a man who despite my keen interest in US politics for nearly a decade prior to that elections I had never heard of. Sen Kamala Harris is young, female & black and unlike Biden is an excellent communicator. There are other candidates such as Stacey Abrams or Val Demings that could fill that role but I feel if Biden went for someone like Klobuchar he might as well drop out

Crucially how will Biden frame the narrative of his campaign? In 2016 the Clinton campaign focused heavily on how bad Trump was & very little on what she stood for & how she was going to move America forward. Trump on the other hand ran on a platform that although divisive & racist told the necessary people that things were going to get better for them both economically by standing up to China, renegotiating NAFTA and bringing back manufacturing & coal jobs and culturally by keeping down immigration by building a wall and keeping out potential Muslim terrorists. As well as ending government corruption by "draining the swamp". It was Obama's hope & change but for white people only.

So far the Biden camp seems to be framing this election as a referendum on Trump & less about what progress they can offer the country. I fear they are falling into the same trap as Clinton.

Weekend polls had Biden ahead in the main states up for grabs mainly with older white voters Trump could be in real trouble only takes a couple of states to switch

Biden will win popular vote by millions its the electoral college where it could be closer

Wish we was allowed to vote!!

We were allowed a vote in our own elections Lovebabes and look what we got!

bunkerboy got a news conference at 10am you know he will do something stupid

The Mayor of Washington has written to Trump telling him she has cancelled the State of Emergency and requesting that he gets the troops that Attorney General Barr used to beat and tear gas lawful protesters off the streets of Washington.

Trumps press conference is likely to be on positive job numbers released earlier today

it will start off on positive then he will take questions and it will all go downhill from there

you know he cant keep his mouth shut lol

Yep it went downhill

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/12689...81665?s=21

WTF - HE NEEDS TO STOP TAKING THOSE MALARIA PILLS!!


AND GET DIVORCED !!