NFL 2025-2026 season

I've noticed more and more recently that so many unfavoured teams, sometimes at odds of 4-1 or more against, still seem to get the wins. It's been such an open season and frequently now, the favourites, according to the bookies, come up against an underdog and lose. Sometimes closely, but other times they're completely out of it.

Is it because generally there's not much difference between most of the teams, except for what people would regard as a few superstar quarterbacks? Or is it other factors like home field advantage, or extreme differences in weather conditions from state to state.

It's been fascinating and exciting to watch so far this season, but I can't help wondering how the bookies keep getting it so wrong, quite often. What are others thoughts?

(19-10-2025 23:34 )Regenerated Wrote:  I've noticed more and more recently that so many unfavoured teams, sometimes at odds of 4-1 or more against, still seem to get the wins. It's been such an open season and frequently now, the favourites, according to the bookies, come up against an underdog and lose. Sometimes closely, but other times they're completely out of it.

Is it because generally there's not much difference between most of the teams, except for what people would regard as a few superstar quarterbacks? Or is it other factors like home field advantage, or extreme differences in weather conditions from state to state.

It's been fascinating and exciting to watch so far this season, but I can't help wondering how the bookies keep getting it so wrong, quite often. What are others thoughts?

I don't think there's that much of a difference between teams. "Any Given Sunday" exist for a reason
It's about execution. Turnovers/injuries/penalties/poor kicking game/ or bad coaching can derail any team.
There's just so much noise with the NFL (and promotion for betting apps) that the narrative going into a game is more important than offensive and defensive matchups.
Hell, the emotion generated from a point spread can be a factor for a team

Weather and Home Field advantage do play a role in the games. There's also travel factors (West Coast team going East comes to mind) Thursday Night games are short weeks, so being at home for those is a factor.

Is AI playing a role in coming up with the spreads

49ers 20 - 10 Falcons
Instead of a regular review with plays & stats which I will keep to a minimal, it feels more important the focus on the team as a whole & some of the stories within that.
All team suffer injuries, but has another been hit by key personnel, the WR group has been operating with 4th, 5th & 6th on the depth chart for most of the season. Purdy was paid big money & by doing so positioned him as their franchise QB only for him to play a minor role with 2 starts & a niggling injury that shows no signs of heeling. Mac Jones has been a revelation, playing with a knee brake, but toughing it out.
The return of Kittle was statistically uneventful with no receptions in the game, but along with the O-line lead by the evergreen Trent Williams, Kittle sparked a running game that has been missing all year. CMC had a 3.3 average this season but exploded on the night with 25 carries, 129 yards, 5.4 average & 2 TDs, coupled with 7 catches for 72 yards for a 201 yard game. The loss of CMC last season was instrumental in the decline on offence & ultimately a losing record.
The young defence bottled up the stella RB Bijan Robinson who had only 40 yards & a 2.9 average. That put the pressure onto the 49ers young secondary, they bent at times but didn't break & came up with vital plays to stall drives. The Falcons 3rd down efficiency was under 50%.
The pass rush without Bosa required imagination from DC Saleh calling blitzes on occasions, the sacks are starting to come.
The best story was LB Tatum Bethune who was making his first start replacing the irreplaceable Fred Warner, the heartbeat of the team, leader & talisman. Bethune wore 48 the former shirt number of Warner who switched to 54. This was the perfect message of were Warner had come from as a rookie & Bethune stepped up with 10 tackles in the game.
CMC will get all the headlines but this was a collective victory. It was great to see McCaffrey & Bijan Robinson exchange shirts after the game there is a mutual respect after the pair have worked together in off-season training.

Coaches Shanahan & Saleh scripted the perfect gameplan.

To sum up the Niners season to date - "Bloodied but unbowed"

Broncos 33 - 32 Giants
In summary Giant up 19-0 after 3 quarters. Broncos score 33 4th quarter points.

(20-10-2025 19:19 )Boomerangutangangbang Wrote:  49ers 20 - 10 Falcons

San Frans defense was fabulous. Last week not so.
They have so many injuries in their squad, but defensive coach Robert Saleh got the players together and produced an excellent performance.

A good win by the Lions last night against the Bucaneers.

They have become a tought unit to beat. A few years ago the fans player of the year was the punter.

MNF
Lions 24 - 9 Buccs
A fascinating hard fought game in which the Lions came up with more big plays on both sides of the ball & were able to take advantage in some of those moments'
The Lions had a balanced offence, Gibbs had 20 offensive plays for a combined rushing & receiving 218 yards with 3 TDs on the ground St Brown had 6 receptions for 86 yards & a TD.
Whilst Goff was only required to pass on 29 occasions, Mayfield threw 50 times, which was in part due to being behind the game, down 14-0 before a late Buccs field goal just before halftime, but also an ineffective run game with just 12 carries for 41 yards & not one positive run from Mayfield who was sacked 4 times.
The Buccs had some opportunities in the red zone but struggled to punch it in other than a 22 yard TD catch by Tez Johnson.

Seahawks 27 - 19 Texans
Very similar to the earlier game of the Thursday night back to back double header.
The Seahawks jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter before the Texans replied with a brace of field goals to make it a game score game at the half.
By the end of he 3rd quarter the Seahawks finished with the Seahawks leading 27-12.
The 4th quarter followed a bizarre pattern of play were possession chanced hands frequently either by turnovers , failed 4th down attempts or punts. The Seahawks had several opportunities to put the game away but the Texans defence battled to the end.
Eventually the Texans pulled the game back to one score but simply ran out of time.
The quality defensive of play by both teams was a joy to watch, so much better than seeing a game were the march up & down the field exchanging scores.

TNF
Sky Sports NFL
Vikings @ Chargers - 01.15 Friday